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Overview of the latest developments in international trade
United States Trade Policies
Following Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency, significant shifts in trade policies are anticipated. The administration plans to implement new and higher tariffs, particularly targeting imports from Mexico and China. Proposed measures include a 200% tariff on automobiles from Mexico and over 60% tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, there is a possibility of revoking China's Normal Trade Relations status, which could lead to substantially higher duties on Chinese products. These changes aim to bolster U.S. manufacturing but may result in increased costs for consumers.
European Union Trade Measures
The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China. This move comes amid concerns about market competitiveness and the impact of subsidized Chinese EVs on the European market. EU member countries have voted on the matter, and while the outcome remains confidential, it could influence the European Commission's final decision on implementing such tariffs
India's Trade Dynamics
India's trade deficit narrowed to a five-month low of just under $21 billion in September, with exports growing by 0.6% and imports rising by 1.7%. Notably, China surpassed the U.S. as India's largest trading partner during April-September, and the UK emerged as the third-largest export destination after overtaking China
Global Trade Resilience
Despite challenges such as geopolitical tensions and threats to key trade routes like the Suez Canal, global trade demonstrated resilience in 2024. Events like the Houthi attacks on the Suez Canal and U.S.-China tensions highlighted vulnerabilities, yet world trade remained generally positive, supported by prudent monetary policies and robust supply chain management by major corporations.
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